The SNP’s many contradictions
Why there should not be a second referendum on Scottish independence
Nicola Sturgeon has claimed that a second independence referendum is a ‘matter of when, not if’, while the Prime Minister has no intention of allowing a re-run of 2014.
Yet since the Scottish Parliamentary election results, the majority of coverage has been based on whether or not there will be another referendum, rather than if there should be one.
When looking at the precedent set by the first referendum, it becomes impossible to justify a second. As politics professor Charlie Jeffery wrote:
‘The Scottish independence referendum was a direct consequence of the SNP winning an absolute majority in the May 2011 Scottish Parliament election’
In the 2021 Scottish Parliamentary Elections, the SNP fell one seat short of a majority. Scottish independence was framed as ‘once in a generation’. It cannot become ‘twice in a generation’, with a second referendum that has a weaker mandate than the first.
One may seek to argue that with the Scottish Greens adding eight seats to the SNP’s 64, resulting in a majority for independence supporting parties, that this shows there should be a second referendum. However, a single issue party having an opinion on a second issue should not lead people to believe that all of those who support that party, support the secondary issue, rather than the first. Hence why only 43% of Scottish Green supporters are pro-independence.
Percentage vote share tells the same story as seats. In 2011, the SNP received 44.7% of the vote (average of constituency and list). In 2021, they received 44% (again average of constituency and list). However, there was a majority of pro-independence votes in 2021, with the Scottish Green votes bringing the SNP over the line.
However, in 2014, there was no majority for independence in vote share. If the SNP were happy to ignore the unionist majority vote share in 2014 and have a referendum, one can only assume they will extend the same treatment to the separatist majority vote share they have now.
There is no mandate for a second referendum in seats or vote share.
Previously, Sturgeon has told Sky that she thinks ‘the polling evidence suggests now a majority of Scots want independence’, and states that whilst a ‘significant’ number were opposed to it, the only way that the issue can be settled is with another referendum.
Again, we find another contradiction in the conditions of the 2014 referendum. As stated by Jeffery, in the run up to finalising the referendum, ‘Scottish opinion polls [were] showing 60%+ support for Scotland remaining within the UK’. Why did polls not matter to the SNP then?
Perhaps because there had not been a Scottish independence referendum before. In which case, now there has been one, why has the SNP not put the issue of independence on the back burner? Aside from the clear pattern of only accepting arguments that favour them, Brexit could be the answer.
Mail columnist Dan Hodges wrote in January that ‘the constitutional settlement the people of Scotland voted for in 2014 no longer exists’, due to the Brexit, and Scotland wishing to remain in the EU, rather than leave.
This would be valid if Scotland had voted on a constitutional settlement. But they did not. Instead, they were asked ‘should Scotland be an independent country’ and they answered no. By answering no, voters tacitly acknowledged that decisions against the will of Scotland may still be taken. If they had wanted to avoid such possibilities, they should have voted yes.
Therefore, the will of the Scottish people being ignored in the decision to leave the European Union is not a justification for another referendum, as the decision for their will to be ignored was the product of a previous expression of their will.
The fact is, that neither seats, nor vote share, nor polls or even Brexit can justify a second referendum, no matter how much the SNP wish that they do.
