Starmer’s dilemma and the threat of success
To oppose or not to oppose. That is the question.
Keir Starmer has faced this question constantly throughout his first year as Labour leader and is soon to have to face it again on vaccine passports. As of this morning, it appears that the party does not yet have a formal position.
At around 1pm today, John Ashworth, Shadow Health Secretary was unable to state if Labour had a position on vaccine passports yet. This will probably change soon, while Starmer mulls over the difficulties of trying to answer the question this time.
The reason why Labour does not have a stance on vaccine passports yet is that they are once again caught in the dilemma of being in opposition. This dilemma is caused by the possibility of their opposition being successful, due to the potential scale of the Tory rebellion. 41 Conservative MPs have joined a cross-party coalition against vaccine passports.
One would have thought that the prospect of successful opposition should make the decision for Starmer easier. In reality, it is the cause of his dilemma.
We’ve seen this before. Last November, the Leader of the Opposition abstained on the vote on ‘tiers’. He argued he could not support the proposals on the grounds of financial support not going far enough. He could not have opposed it either. A strong Tory rebellion seemed likely, making the bill dependant on Labour votes. To oppose would be to prevent restrictions being introduced, which he believed were needed to control the virus. As demonstrated by this briefing to the Guardian:
Starmer will tell his MPs he does not believe Labour should directly oppose the measures because of the need to keep control of the virus. But he will say that, by abstaining, the party can signal that the financial support for hospitality businesses is inadequate.
It was this abstention which personified the issues around Starmer sitting on the fence.
In an ideal world, Starmer could have voted against tiers, made a strong stand for the hospitality sector, and the legislation still would have passed, ensuring the virus was controlled. But thanks to the threat of a tory rebellion, that was not an option. It is not one now either.
If Starmer opposes, there are many potential political problems, all enhanced by the threat of successful opposition.
He would be blocking something that is popular among the public. In a poll of Red Wall seats, 55% agreed with the statement ‘Labour has played party politics during the Coronavirus pandemic’. This is hardly going to be helped by opposing legislation relating to the pandemic.
He also risks slowing down the unlocking. For example, what if the government decides that mass gatherings can only be safe with vaccine passports, and Keir Starmer has just blocked them? The government could turn around and delay mass gatherings, and pin it on Starmer for blocking the passports. This would then lead to popular ire at the delayed return of our freedoms, amplified by the aforementioned popularity of the policy among the public.
Or, what if the government decides to continue with unlocking, and then there is a spike? Could they not make the argument that vaccine passports could have helped prevent this spike whilst allowing our freedoms? Starmer would be blamed again.
From all of this, it might seem obvious that Labour should support the passport proposals. However, then there is the risk that Labour once again appears to lack vision. A problem they need to address, as the same red wall poll found 55% agreed it is ‘unclear what Keir Starmer stands for’. However, it is possible that ignoring public opinion could make what Keir Starmer stands for much clearer.
There is also the fact that Starmer may not want to support the policy because of the policy itself. Ashworth said this to Radio 4 earlier:
‘My worry is that the government is trying to force people into taking the vaccine, and in the end that would be counter productive’
Starmer also said this to The Daily Telegraph:
‘My instinct is that, as the vaccine is rolled out, as the number of hospital admissions and deaths go down, there will be a British sense that we don’t actually want to go down this road’
This does not scream ‘pro-vaccine passports’. However, it shows the dilemma that Starmer faces in deciding how his party will vote on vaccine passports.
At the end of the day, politics is about making tough decisions. Another abstention won’t cut it.
